Most of the winery owners we talk with this fall are asking some version of the same question. Is this slowdown a bad couple of years, or is the business changing for good? The honest answer is a bit of both, and the numbers published this year give a clearer picture than the headlines do.
We pulled the wine industry trends 2026 from the sources we trust most: the Silicon Valley Bank State of the US Wine Industry report, the California grape crush report, and Gallup’s annual drinking survey.
Below is what each one says and how we would use it when you sit down to build your 2027 budget.
Wine Sales Fell Again, and Value Wine Took the Biggest Hit
US wine sales declined for another year in 2025. According to Silicon Valley Bank’s 2026 State of the US Wine Industry report, total volume came in at around 329 million cases, down from 335.9 million in 2024. Sales were down 2.0% by cases and 1.6% by dollars.
The report says most of that drop came from wines priced under $12. Premium wineries held up better, though their revenue still slipped 1.2% in the first half of 2025. If your wines sit above the value tier, you are in a stronger spot than the national numbers suggest, but you are still selling into a smaller market.
What this means for planning is simple enough. A budget that assumes last year’s case volume plus a little growth is probably too optimistic for most small and mid-size wineries right now. We would rather see you plan flat and be pleasantly surprised.
Fewer Americans Drink Wine or Any Alcohol in 2026
The share of US adults who say they drink alcohol hit 54% in 2025, the lowest in Gallup’s nearly 90 years of tracking. Gallup’s August 2025 survey found the drop was steepest among adults under 35, the same group many wineries are counting on to replace aging club members.
Gallup’s 2026 follow-up found the rate held at that record low for a second year. So this is no longer a single bad reading.
Health concerns are a big part of the shift. For the first time in Gallup’s tracking, a majority of Americans said that even moderate drinking is bad for your health.
For a winery, this changes who your next customer is. The people who already love wine are still buying, and they are worth more to you than ever. Winning new drinkers is getting harder and more expensive, which matters when you decide where your marketing dollars go next year. Which brings us to the sales channel where your existing customers live.
Why Do Direct-to-Consumer Wine Sales Matter More Than Ever?
Direct-to-consumer sales matter more because they are where small wineries keep the most margin and the closest relationship with buyers. In SVB’s 2026 report discussion, Rob McMillan noted that wine club sales make up about 70% of sales for many small wineries. The same report flagged lower tasting room visits at smaller, hospitality-focused wineries.
That combination puts real pressure on small wineries. Fewer people come through the tasting room door, so each visit has to turn into a club signup or a reorder more often than it used to.
If you don’t run a club yet, this is a fair moment to ask whether one fits your winery. It’s a bigger commitment than it looks from the outside. Our wine club decision framework walks through the financial questions worth answering before you launch.
This is where the numbers really help. Knowing your club churn rate, your average order value and what each tasting room visitor is worth to you lets you spend on the right things. If you are weighing whether a club still pays off, our piece on when wine clubs stop being profitable walks through the math.
A strong club also gives you something the wholesale channel rarely does, which is a reliable read on demand. When you can see renewals, skips and cancellations month by month, you can adjust production and spending long before a slow year shows up in your bank balance. What you pay for fruit is the next question, and that number is moving too.
Wine Grape Prices Are Softening in 2026
California crushed less fruit in 2025, and growers were paid less for it. The California Department of Food and Agriculture’s preliminary grape crush report shows the 2025 crush came in 6.2% lower than 2024.
Prices followed the tonnage down. The average price across all varieties fell 3.8%, and red wine grapes fell 4.4% to $1,280.63 per ton.
SVB’s report points to oversupply as a long-running problem across the whole supply chain, with higher inventory at the end of 2025. Growers are pulling vines or leaving fruit unharvested, and the bank does not expect supply to be back in balance for a couple of years.
If you buy fruit, this may be a good year to look hard at your grape contracts. If you grow and sell fruit, it is a year to stress test your cash needs against a lower price per ton. Either way, the price you paid or received last year is not a safe number to copy into next year’s plan.
Lower fruit prices sound like good news for wineries that buy grapes, and they can be. The catch is that the savings only reach your margin if the rest of your costs hold still, and for most wineries they have not.
Tariffs and Rising Costs Are Squeezing Winery Margins
Lower demand would be easier to manage if costs were falling too, but most wineries are seeing the opposite. Costs like glass, packaging, labor and insurance have not come down along with demand, and the 2026 import surcharge added cost to some imported supplies. We broke down what that surcharge actually says in our post on wine tariffs in 2026 and winery margins.
SVB described the result plainly: the industry ended 2025 with tighter profit margins and more inventory on hand. When sales soften and costs rise in the same year, the wineries that get hurt are usually the ones that do not know their true cost per case.
That is why we keep coming back to cost of goods. If you have not reviewed your winery cost of goods sold by SKU in the last year, it is the single most useful thing to do before budget season. Once you know those numbers, the next section shows how they shape your 2027 budget.
What Should Winery Owners Change in Their 2027 Budget?
Winery owners should build their 2027 budget around flat volume, protected margins, and a cash cushion that can carry them through a slow year. SVB expects the rate of decline to ease in 2026 and the market to bounce along a bottom through 2027 and 2028. That outlook argues for a careful plan instead of a recovery plan.
Here are the changes we would talk through with you:
- Plan case sales flat to slightly down, and build a second version of the budget with a 10% drop so you know your breaking point.
- Look at every SKU’s margin and decide which wines earn their place in the lineup.
- Price for your costs. Holding prices steady while costs rise quietly erodes your margin every month.
- Put more of your sales and marketing budget toward club members and repeat buyers.
- Review inventory levels, especially aging bulk wine, so cash is not tied up in wine you cannot sell for a while.
- Revisit your grape contracts and supply costs while prices are soft.
None of this needs to be dramatic. Small changes made in the fall usually save you from bigger ones in the spring.
We also suggest setting a few checkpoints during the year. A quick look at club numbers, inventory, and cash at the end of each quarter tells you whether the plan is holding up, and it gives you time to adjust before harvest costs arrive.
How We Help Wineries Plan Through a Slower Market
A slow market rewards wineries that know their numbers well enough to act early. The trends above are national. What matters for you is how they show up in your own P&L, your club data, and your inventory.
As the winery accountants behind operators across Napa and beyond, we help owners turn reports like these into a budget they can actually run their business on.
Our winery CFO services cover forecasting, SKU margin reviews and cash planning for the year ahead.
If you want to talk through your 2027 plan, reach out to us and we will walk through it with you, which covers the exact timing gap that makes winery financing so tricky in the first place.
